By John Umeh
Nigerians may soon face another surge in petrol prices, as escalating tensions between Israel and Iran threaten to disrupt global oil supplies and push crude prices to new highs. Analysts warn that the pump price of petrol could hit ₦1,000 per litre if the conflict deepens and oil production or distribution in the Middle East is significantly affected.
Global Crisis, Local Consequences
The latest flare-up in hostilities between Israel and Iran—two major players in the already volatile Middle East—has sent shockwaves through global energy markets. Oil prices have spiked sharply in recent days, with Brent crude edging close to $100 per barrel amid fears of supply chain disruption across the Persian Gulf, where a significant portion of the world’s crude oil is transported.
For Nigeria, which still relies heavily on imported refined petroleum products despite being a crude oil producer, the price volatility in the international market translates directly into higher costs for domestic fuel. Since the removal of fuel subsidies in mid-2023, petrol prices in the country have been determined by market forces, leaving consumers vulnerable to global price shifts and foreign exchange fluctuations.
Economic Pressures Mounting
At the current pace, energy economists predict that if oil continues on an upward trend past the $100–$110 range, and with the naira still struggling against the U.S. dollar, the landing cost of petrol could push retail prices toward or even beyond ₦1,000/litre in the coming weeks.
“The combination of high international crude oil prices and a weak naira makes the situation even more precarious for Nigeria,” said Bode Akintola, an energy analyst with Lagos-based OilPro Consultants. “If the Middle East conflict escalates into a full-blown regional war, the resulting market panic could drive prices through the roof.”
Widespread Impact on Nigerians
A potential hike in petrol prices will likely trigger a ripple effect across Nigeria’s already fragile economy. Transport fares, food prices, and general cost of living are expected to rise further, compounding the inflationary pressures already weighing on households and businesses.
“We are barely managing with the current ₦700–₦750 per litre,” said a Lagos-based commercial bus driver. “If it goes to ₦1,000, a trip that now costs ₦300 may become ₦500. Who can afford that?”
Traders and small business owners also worry that another fuel hike could cripple operations, especially those who depend on petrol for daily power supply due to poor electricity infrastructure.
FG’s Options Limited
The Nigerian government, having removed subsidies to cut fiscal deficits, has limited options for shielding citizens from global shocks. Though the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has tried to stabilize the supply chain, it remains at the mercy of global pricing and currency exchange dynamics.
Calls for the government to urgently boost local refining capacity, particularly through the speedy operationalization of the Dangote Refinery and rehabilitation of state-owned refineries, have grown louder. Experts believe domestic refining is the most sustainable long-term solution to the fuel price crisis.
What Lies Ahead?
As geopolitical tensions rise and global oil markets react nervously, Nigerians brace for what could be another painful adjustment at the pumps. The full impact will depend on how long the Israel–Iran standoff lasts and whether diplomatic efforts can prevent a wider regional war.
For now, with no fuel subsidy to cushion the blow, and no immediate fix for foreign exchange or domestic refining constraints, a ₦1,000/litre petrol price may no longer be a distant possibility—it could soon be the harsh reality.
