Political Analyst
John Umeh
What’s Working For Tinubu and the APC as of July 2025
1. Governor Defections to APC
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Several opposition governors and top political figures (e.g. former PDP and NNPP members) have already defected to the APC.
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This gives APC control over more state structures, electoral influence, and grassroots machinery.
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It also weakens opposition coordination and reduces resources for Atiku and Obi.
2. Power of Incumbency
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Tinubu, as a sitting president, controls federal security agencies, INEC logistics, patronage networks, and national media reach.
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This gives him significant electoral advantage.
3. Divided Opposition
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As of now, no formal merger has been sealed between Atiku, Obi, and Kwankwaso.
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Labour Party and PDP structures are still operating independently, and personal ambition may hinder merger talks.
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The 2023 elections showed how fragmented opposition votes helped Tinubu win with just 36%.
What Could Work Against Tinubu
1. Deepening Economic Hardship
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As of mid-2025, Nigeria is facing serious economic pressures: inflation, rising fuel and electricity costs, and worsening poverty levels.
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These conditions have eroded public trust and could fuel mass protest votes in 2027.
2. High Youth Discontent
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Tinubu remains deeply unpopular among many youth and urban voters — especially those who supported Peter Obi in 2023.
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If Obi and Atiku unite with a compelling candidate, they could energize youth turnout.
3. Atiku + Obi + Kwankwaso Merger
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If a genuine, coordinated merger happens (e.g. adopting a single party like ADC, as rumored), with strong zoning strategy and unified funding, they could be a real threat.
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Atiku brings the North-East and North-Central muscle; Obi brings urban and youth votes; Kwankwaso brings Kano and parts of the North-West.
Biggest Challenges to the Merger Working
| Challenge | Details |
|---|---|
| Mutual Ambition | Atiku (82 in 2027) and Obi (63) both want to run. No one seems willing to step aside. |
| Structural Weakness | Labour Party is still not as organized nationwide as APC or PDP. |
| Voter Fatigue | Many Nigerians may feel “same faces, same failures” and avoid voting entirely. |
| APC Ground Game | With 20+ states likely under APC control by 2026, election day logistics and vote protection become harder for the opposition. |
Realistic 2027 Scenario (As of Now)
| Outcome | Likelihood (July 2025) |
|---|---|
| Tinubu wins re-election narrowly | Most likely if opposition remains fragmented or semi-united |
| Atiku-Obi merger unseats Tinubu | Possible, but depends heavily on timing, candidate choice, and mass mobilization |
| Major voter apathy or low turnout | Likely unless campaigns re-inspire faith in change |
Final Answer:
As of July 2025, an Atiku-Obi merger can challenge Tinubu, but cannot unseat him unless:
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A single strong candidate is chosen (not both men insisting on running),
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They finalize the merger well before mid-2026,
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They build real grassroots alliances in the North-West and South-West,
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They capitalize on economic dissatisfaction and youth energy.
