By Arinze Uzo
Business News Correspondent
Africa’s richest man and Chairman of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, has cast serious doubts over the viability of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) refineries, despite the staggering $18 billion reportedly spent on their rehabilitation over the years. In a brutally frank assessment, Dangote declared that the facilities “may never work again,” a statement that has ignited national debate and renewed scrutiny on Nigeria’s long-standing failure to revamp its oil refining sector.
A Bleak Outlook from an Industry Insider
Speaking at the recent AfroEnergy Summit 2025 in Lagos, Dangote, whose own privately-owned Dangote Refinery has recently begun operations, questioned the logic behind Nigeria’s decades-long investments in the NNPC-operated refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna. He lamented that despite billions of dollars in turnaround maintenance (TAM) projects and successive government interventions, the state-run refineries have remained comatose, contributing zero output to the country’s domestic fuel supply.
“We have spent over $18 billion on these refineries over the last 25 years, yet they have failed to produce a single litre of refined fuel consistently. At this rate, it is safe to say they may never work again,” Dangote said.
His remarks come amid growing frustration among Nigerians over rising fuel costs, continued dependency on imported petroleum products, and the failure of public institutions to deliver on key infrastructure.
The $18 Billion Question
The Nigerian government, through NNPC, has sunk billions of dollars into maintaining and rehabilitating its three major refineries, many of which have not operated at full capacity for more than two decades. A breakdown of the spending includes:
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$1.5 billion earmarked in 2021 for the rehabilitation of the Port Harcourt refinery.
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Billions more spent on multiple failed TAM contracts between 1999 and 2019.
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Additional funds misappropriated or wasted on consultancy fees, partial upgrades, and overhead for non-operational staff.
Despite these massive investments, the refineries have failed to meet even 10% of Nigeria’s fuel needs. The country, paradoxically one of Africa’s top crude oil producers, imports over 90% of its refined petroleum products, primarily from Europe and Asia.
Dangote Refinery: A Stark Contrast
The newly launched Dangote Refinery, located in the Lekki Free Trade Zone in Lagos, presents a stark contrast to the state’s failed efforts. With a capacity to process 650,000 barrels per day, it is Africa’s largest and one of the most modern refining facilities globally. The refinery is already supplying diesel and aviation fuel to local and regional markets and is expected to begin producing petrol by the last quarter of 2025.
“We have shown that it can be done here, in Nigeria, with the right focus, accountability, and technical expertise,” Dangote added.
He emphasized that his success was not due to luck but to a clear business model, stringent project management, and avoidance of political interference — issues that have plagued the NNPC for decades.
Industry Reactions and Public Outrage
Dangote’s statement has sent ripples through Nigeria’s oil and gas industry. Civil society organizations, energy experts, and ordinary citizens have expressed outrage over the wasted funds and demanded accountability from successive governments.
Dr. Wale Oni, an oil and gas policy analyst, called Dangote’s remarks a “truth bomb.”
“It’s not just about the money; it’s about the lost opportunities. Imagine what $18 billion could have done in terms of education, healthcare, or alternative energy. The refineries have become a national embarrassment,” he said.
On social media, #NNPCRefineryScandal began trending, with users calling for a full audit and prosecution of those responsible for mismanaging the funds.
The Government’s Response
In response to the controversy, NNPC Limited issued a brief statement defending its efforts, claiming that the rehabilitation projects were “ongoing” and that delays were due to “technical complexities and legacy issues.” The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Heineken Lokpobiri, urged Nigerians to be patient and assured that at least one refinery would begin test runs by the end of 2025.
However, confidence in the government’s promises remains low, particularly in the face of Dangote’s credibility and track record.
What This Means for Nigeria’s Energy Future
Dangote’s blunt verdict adds weight to long-standing arguments for full deregulation of the downstream sector and privatization of non-performing state assets. Analysts argue that the government must now decide whether to continue pouring money into a black hole or sell off the refineries to capable private investors.
Meanwhile, the Dangote Refinery is expected to play a major role in stabilizing domestic fuel prices, reducing Nigeria’s import bill, and potentially positioning the country as a petroleum product exporter in the near future.
Conclusion
The revelation that $18 billion may have been spent in vain on NNPC’s refineries, only for them to remain idle, is a sobering indictment of Nigeria’s systemic failures in governance and infrastructure development. Aliko Dangote’s assessment may be harsh, but it reflects a hard truth that many Nigerians have long suspected — that the refineries have become relics of corruption, inefficiency, and political mismanagement.
With the Dangote Refinery now operating, the contrast could not be clearer: one man’s vision is achieving what decades of government investment could not. The question now is whether Nigeria’s leaders will finally learn from this failure — or continue on a path of wasteful spending and unfulfilled promises.
