By John Umeh
With whispers of Goodluck Jonathan’s return growing louder, Atiku Abubakar’s decision to stall his African Democratic Congress membership move has sparked intrigue—and could set the stage for one of Nigeria’s most unpredictable presidential races.
Political Chess: Atiku Holds Off on ADC Move Amid Speculation Over Jonathan’s Return
The political temperature in Nigeria is already beginning to rise ahead of the 2027 general elections, and one man at the center of the latest intrigue is former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. The veteran politician, who has contested for the presidency multiple times under different platforms, has once again set the political grapevine buzzing—this time by reportedly delaying the collection of his African Democratic Congress (ADC) membership card.
While some insiders insist the delay is purely procedural, political watchers are not convinced. They point to a more calculated reason: Atiku may be holding back to see how the rumoured political comeback of former President Goodluck Jonathan unfolds.
A Calculated Pause in a Fluid Political Landscape
In Nigerian politics, timing is often as important as the decision itself. Atiku’s pause suggests a deliberate strategy to remain uncommitted until the fog around opposition politics clears. With President Bola Ahmed Tinubu expected to seek re-election and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) already mobilising resources, the opposition must consolidate early if it hopes to mount a credible challenge.
By not finalising his ADC move now, Atiku is keeping his cards close to his chest. This allows him to:
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Monitor how the Jonathan comeback rumours develop.
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Avoid prematurely locking himself into a platform that may not be strategically advantageous.
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Keep the door open for alliances or mergers that may emerge in the coming months.
The political terrain in Nigeria has a history of sudden shifts, where last-minute coalitions or defections can alter the electoral balance. Atiku’s delay may be a signal that he expects more of these shifts before 2027.
The Jonathan Factor
Goodluck Jonathan, who served as Nigeria’s president from 2010 to 2015, left office with a mixed record—praised for conceding defeat peacefully but criticised for governance challenges. Since leaving Aso Rock, he has largely kept a low political profile, focusing on diplomacy and peace missions across Africa.
However, whispers of a Jonathan comeback have grown louder in recent months. Political insiders suggest he has been approached by influential figures seeking a “neutral” or “unifying” opposition candidate. His perceived lack of current political baggage, combined with lingering goodwill in parts of the country, makes him a potentially disruptive entrant into the 2027 race.
For Atiku, Jonathan’s return could complicate matters significantly. Both men draw support from the South-South and parts of the North, but their appeal overlaps in key swing regions. If they run separately, they risk splitting the opposition vote—something the APC would welcome. If they run together, questions over who leads the ticket could trigger bitter infighting.
Strategic Implications for the Opposition
The opposition in Nigeria often struggles with unity. In 2015, the APC successfully unseated Jonathan by presenting a united front behind Muhammadu Buhari. In 2019 and 2023, the opposition fragmented, with multiple strong candidates dividing the vote.
Atiku’s current hesitation may be an attempt to avoid a repeat of this mistake. By waiting, he can gauge:
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Whether Jonathan’s entry is serious or just political speculation.
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The willingness of smaller parties to form a coalition.
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The best time to declare his own intentions to maximise momentum.
If Jonathan formally declares his candidacy, Atiku will have to decide whether to challenge him directly within the same coalition or pivot to another alliance entirely.
The Risk and Reward of Waiting
While strategic patience can pay off, it also carries risks. A prolonged delay could:
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Weaken Atiku’s visibility in the public eye.
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Allow other opposition candidates, such as Peter Obi, to consolidate grassroots momentum.
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Give the impression of indecision, which could erode confidence among supporters.
On the other hand, by waiting, Atiku can avoid being boxed into a political corner and potentially position himself as the consensus candidate if other options falter. In Nigeria’s volatile political arena, being the “last man standing” with broad acceptability can be more valuable than early declarations.
Three Roads to 2027: How Atiku and Jonathan’s Choices Could Reshape Nigeria’s Political Future
Here are three plausible scenarios—and their likely consequences—if Atiku and Jonathan decide to run separately, join forces, or if one steps aside for the other.
Scenario 1: Both Atiku and Jonathan Run Separately
If Atiku and Jonathan decide to contest the 2027 election as separate candidates under different party platforms or coalitions, the opposition vote could be severely fragmented.
Potential Outcomes:
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Vote Splitting: The APC benefits the most, as the combined electoral strength of Atiku and Jonathan would be divided.
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Regional Battlegrounds: Jonathan could dominate the South-South, Atiku the North-East and parts of the North-West, but swing regions might lean towards APC.
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Perception Battle: Both could be accused of putting personal ambition ahead of national unity.
Winners: APC, smaller opposition parties.
Losers: Opposition unity, voter confidence in change.
Scenario 2: One Runs, the Other Steps Aside
This “unity candidate” option would see one of them withdraw to back the other.
Potential Outcomes:
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Stronger Opposition Front: A single high-profile candidate could galvanise voters nationwide.
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Negotiation Politics: Stepping aside would likely involve promises of key roles or influence.
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Public Perception Boost: Such a move could be seen as selfless and statesmanlike.
Risks:
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Supporters may not fully transfer loyalty.
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Disputes over running mate selection could cause cracks.
Winners: Opposition chances of victory.
Losers: Ambition of sidelined candidate—unless rewarded politically.
Scenario 3: Atiku and Jonathan Form a Joint Ticket
In this bold move, they could run together on a President–Vice President ticket.
Potential Outcomes:
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Historic Alliance: It would instantly create a formidable political force.
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Regional Balance: Atiku (North) and Jonathan (South) could deliver near-perfect spread.
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Mobilisation Power: Their combined networks would be unmatched.
Risks:
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Leadership dispute over who tops the ticket.
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Criticism over recycling old leaders.
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Managing egos and loyalists could prove challenging.
Winners: Opposition morale, voter excitement.
Losers: “Fresh face” candidates seeking the change narrative.
The Verdict: The Game Before the Game
In Nigerian politics, elections are often won before election day—through alliances, defections, and backroom deals. For Atiku and Jonathan, the decision over the next 12 months could determine not just their political futures, but also Nigeria’s political direction for years to come.
If they run separately, the APC will likely breathe a sigh of relief. If one steps aside for the other, the opposition suddenly becomes a serious contender. And if they form a joint ticket, 2027 could become one of the most competitive elections in the nation’s history.
For now, both men are moving their chess pieces quietly—but when they finally make their moves, the entire board will change.
