By Gloria Nosa
Party Turmoil Ahead of Election
Kemi Badenoch, the leader of the UK Conservative Party, faces a major internal challenge as a new YouGov poll reveals that half of Tory party members do not want her to lead them into the next general election. The findings, published on the eve of the party’s annual conference, highlight deepening divisions within the grassroots.
While 46% of members still back Badenoch remaining in charge when Britain next goes to the polls, 50% are opposed — a stark warning sign for a leader who has been in office for barely a year.
II. Fears Over Badenoch’s Survival as Leader
The poll of 652 Conservative members also shows uncertainty over whether Badenoch can even hang on to the leadership until the election. Nearly 49% believe she will be ousted before the country votes, while only 47% think she will still be in post by then.
This uncertainty is feeding speculation within the party that her leadership may not survive the current wave of grassroots discontent, particularly as a rival emerges in Robert Jenrick.
III. Jenrick Now the Grassroots Favourite
In a striking reversal of fortunes, former leadership contender Robert Jenrick has overtaken Badenoch as the members’ preferred leader. According to the poll, 46% of Tory members now back Jenrick to lead the party, compared with just 39% for Badenoch.
Jenrick, who lost to Badenoch in last year’s leadership contest, is now seen by many in the party as a stronger option to take on Labour at the next general election. He also outperforms other potential candidates, such as Boris Johnson, James Cleverly, and Priti Patel, in hypothetical head-to-head matchups. Badenoch would narrowly beat Johnson but loses to Jenrick in a direct contest.
IV. Tensions Over Reform UK Deal
The poll also exposes a serious rift between Badenoch and her party members over relations with Reform UK, the right-wing rival party. Despite Badenoch’s firm rejection of any electoral pact, an overwhelming 64% of Conservative members support a deal with Reform UK to avoid splitting the right-wing vote in key target seats. Only 31% oppose the idea.
Even more strikingly, 46% of members would back a full merger with Reform UK, compared to 48% who are against it — indicating a near-even split over a dramatic realignment of the right.
V. Fear of a Labour Government Drives Unity Calls
The appetite for collaboration with Reform UK appears to be driven by a strong fear of a Labour government. The poll found 93% of members oppose any coalition with Labour in the event of a hung parliament, while a commanding 73% would support a coalition with Reform UK under the same circumstances.
This sentiment reflects a party base that is deeply concerned about losing power and is willing to contemplate major compromises to prevent it.
VI. A Difficult Path for Badenoch
These findings deliver an unmistakable warning to Kemi Badenoch as she heads into the party’s annual conference: a significant portion of her own grassroots no longer see her as the best option to lead the Conservatives into the next election.
With Robert Jenrick gaining momentum and members clamouring for a right-wing alliance she has rejected, Badenoch’s leadership faces its most serious challenge yet. Whether she can rebuild confidence — or whether her tenure will be cut short — may define not just her own future but also the direction of the Conservative Party itself.
