By Gloria Nosa
In a strategic yet controversial move, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has reportedly finalized a shortlist of three potential successors, excluding his own son Mojtaba Khamenei from the line of succession. The decision comes amid heightened security concerns and persistent fears of a targeted assassination, as geopolitical tensions in the region continue to rise.
According to multiple sources close to the Iranian establishment, Khamenei’s move to name multiple successors is part of a broader contingency plan aimed at ensuring regime continuity in the event of sudden leadership disruption. Intelligence reports suggest that the 85-year-old Supreme Leader, who has ruled since 1989, is increasingly concerned about external threats to his life—particularly amid escalating hostility between Iran and Israel, as well as the ongoing standoff with Western powers over Tehran’s nuclear program.
Breaking Dynastic Assumptions
Speculation around Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, had been rampant for years. Widely seen as his father’s closest advisor and a powerful behind-the-scenes figure, Mojtaba was long thought to be grooming himself as the next Supreme Leader. However, by deliberately excluding him, Ayatollah Khamenei appears to be signaling a departure from any dynastic intentions—a move likely aimed at preserving the Islamic Republic’s theocratic legitimacy and avoiding charges of nepotism.
Iran’s constitution does not prescribe hereditary succession for the Supreme Leader, and handing power to Mojtaba would have ignited fierce backlash from both reformist clerics and rival factions within the political elite. By overlooking his son, Khamenei is attempting to reinforce the Islamic Republic’s narrative of meritocratic religious leadership over familial entitlement.
The Three-Man Shortlist
While official names have not been released, analysts believe the three candidates selected by Khamenei include a mix of religious scholars and military-linked clerics. All are said to have strong ideological loyalty to the principles of velayat-e faqih (guardianship of the Islamic jurist)—the foundational doctrine that vests ultimate political and religious authority in a single Supreme Leader.
Possible contenders include:
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Ebrahim Raisi, Iran’s current president and former judiciary chief, known for his hardline stance and close ties to Khamenei’s inner circle.
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Alireza Arafi, a senior cleric and influential member of the Assembly of Experts.
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Hossein Salami, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), representing the growing military influence over Iran’s political system.
The inclusion of multiple figures suggests a flexible transition strategy. Should any of the three be eliminated, disqualified, or deemed unsuitable at the time of succession, the regime can pivot to another candidate without triggering a vacuum.
Regional and Domestic Implications
Khamenei’s decision comes at a time of deep uncertainty for Iran. The country is grappling with economic stagnation, internal dissent, and international isolation. A sudden leadership crisis—especially one resulting from assassination—could fracture the political establishment and embolden opposition groups.
By solidifying a succession plan now, Khamenei is attempting to preempt such instability and maintain control over the direction of the regime. However, this development also raises questions about how much consensus truly exists within the ruling elite, particularly among the Assembly of Experts, which is constitutionally mandated to choose the next Supreme Leader.
Furthermore, sidelining Mojtaba could trigger internal friction. While the younger Khamenei holds no formal political office, his influence among security agencies and conservative clerics is considerable. Analysts warn that any power struggle between the listed successors and Mojtaba’s supporters could complicate the eventual transition.
Global Reaction and Strategic Calculations
The revelation of a succession shortlist—combined with public acknowledgment of assassination fears—adds a new layer to international assessments of Iranian stability. For foreign governments, particularly the United States and Israel, the succession plan will be closely scrutinized as a barometer for Iran’s post-Khamenei future. Will the next Supreme Leader be a pragmatist open to engagement with the West, or will he continue the hardline policies that have defined Khamenei’s tenure?
While the Islamic Republic has survived multiple leadership and generational transitions since its 1979 founding, the looming change at the very top may prove to be the most delicate—and consequential—yet. By skipping his son and selecting a broader pool of candidates, Ayatollah Khamenei is attempting to shape that future with as much control as possible, even in the face of threats he can no longer ignore.
