By John Umeh
The 2027 Lagos governorship race between Obafemi Hamzat and Akinwunmi Ambode is still too early to call, but based on current political realities, Hamzat appears more likely — though Lagos politics can change quickly. Here’s a clear breakdown:
Who Is More Likely to Win? (Early Analysis)
Why Hamzat Looks Stronger Right Now
- Incumbency Advantage
- Hamzat is currently the Deputy Governor of Lagos State (since 2019)
- He is already inside government structure and power network
- Lagos politics usually favors continuity within the ruling structure
- Strong Party Loyalty
- Political observers say Hamzat’s loyalty to Sanwo-Olu and Tinubu is a major advantage
- In Lagos APC politics, loyalty is often rewarded with succession
- Early Consultations Already Ongoing
- Reports show Hamzat has started consultations with key APC stakeholders ahead of 2027
- Tinubu Political Structure
- Lagos governor is usually decided by APC leadership and Tinubu political structure
- If Hamzat gets their backing, he becomes very difficult to beat
Ambode’s Strengths
Ambode still has serious advantages:
- Former Lagos governor (2015–2019)
- Quiet but respected technocrat
- Grassroots support in parts of Lagos
- Could benefit from “second chance” sentiment
However, Ambode also has major challenges:
- Lost APC primary in 2018
- Has stayed relatively quiet politically
- May struggle to regain party structure
Ambode served as Lagos governor from 2015 to 2019 before losing the APC ticket to Sanwo-Olu
Biggest Factor That Will Decide
In Lagos politics, three things decide the winner:
- Tinubu’s backing
- APC ticket winner
- Zoning (Lagos West / Central / East)
If:
- Tinubu backs Hamzat → Hamzat likely wins
- Tinubu backs Ambode → Ambode becomes strong contender
- Tinubu backs someone else → Both may lose
Because Lagos politics often produces “surprise candidates”, analysts warn the final candidate may even be someone unexpected
My Early Prediction (Based on Current Signals)
- Hamzat — 55% chance
- Ambode — 30% chance
- Other candidates — 15% chance
This can change quickly depending on:
- APC zoning
- Tinubu endorsement
- Public sentiment
- Opposition strength
This 2027 Lagos election is already shaping up to be one of the most interesting in years
